Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 32.480903 34.975625 37.678554 40.844478 44.476973 48.546532 53.496758
2025-05-18 28.466290 31.739393 35.505384 40.226216 46.086487 53.267176 62.977197
2025-05-25 25.915652 29.520580 33.827716 39.472168 46.868653 56.542312 70.751151
2025-06-01 24.053778 27.838333 32.490219 38.800111 47.435987 59.365743 78.224672
2025-06-08 22.427763 26.267011 31.088580 37.805455 47.322271 61.076471 84.251783
2025-06-15 21.871888 25.977571 31.267342 38.879719 50.143156 67.405423 99.151379
2025-06-22 20.961909 25.146841 30.638937 38.733444 51.108877 70.968100 110.241406
2025-06-29 20.003232 24.182745 29.746902 38.103860 51.222735 73.095762 119.182615
2025-07-06 19.015545 23.121089 28.645685 37.062661 50.547355 73.718729 125.151468
2025-07-13 18.791925 23.078969 28.957311 38.143947 53.415662 81.181742 149.497005
2025-07-20 18.470122 22.877206 29.018148 38.830013 55.687663 87.982943 176.024884
2025-07-27 18.093703 22.575098 28.907109 39.222921 57.478686 94.195454 205.098628
2025-08-03 17.523157 21.987880 28.365509 38.917208 58.042535 98.100378 230.696654
2025-08-10 16.923762 21.335025 27.693180 38.348678 58.056788 100.814394 254.837767
2025-08-17 16.338444 20.677140 26.977778 37.651675 57.737278 102.672993 277.698857
2025-08-24 15.812884 20.085384 26.334130 37.029937 57.494860 104.687535 304.124862
2025-08-31 15.250844 19.419809 25.546776 36.108761 56.552554 104.716223 320.969474
2025-09-07 15.165647 19.453650 25.846710 37.103613 59.671583 116.527643 431.059794
2025-09-14 14.834579 19.106613 25.527056 36.968232 60.373762 121.747942 512.735828
2025-09-21 14.427001 18.630495 24.980712 36.385246 60.028430 123.721800 573.888336
2025-09-28 13.960249 18.051395 24.247914 35.420063 58.737982 122.431148 598.731234
2025-10-05 13.924539 18.124281 24.568965 36.422380 62.037656 137.358302 933.341621
2025-10-12 13.814302 18.077828 24.690995 37.057612 64.584398 151.032677 1518.117012